為什麼你的咖啡越來越貴：你需要知道的事
如果你有一直在持續關注你的咖啡成本，你可能已經注意到有些事情正在醞釀，不單單只是影響到一杯早晨的咖啡。價格在升高，背後有很多原因。讓我們來探討一下咖啡市場的動向以及這對你最愛的咖啡意味著什麼。
當前咖啡市場趨勢
首先，讓我們來看看數據。最近，阿拉比卡咖啡價格上漲了2.38%，而羅布斯塔咖啡價格上漲了近4%。這些價格變動反映了更廣泛的市場趨勢，阿拉比卡價格達到了一週半的高點，而羅布斯塔則達到了一個月的高峰。今年高端阿拉比卡期貨價格上漲了約30%，由於較便宜的羅布斯塔供應短缺，增加了星巴克和雀巢Nespresso等品牌所青睞的高端咖啡豆的需求。
也因為今年主要生產羅布斯塔的越南和印尼生產量下降，導致烘焙商必須爭奪咖啡豆。Luigi Lavazza SpA咖啡烘焙商的主席Giuseppe Lavazza在本週的採訪中表示，羅布斯塔期貨價格達到了自2008年以來的最高點，然後有所回落。他說，這意味著阿拉比卡價格也必須保持“相當高”。那麼，究竟到底是什麼原因推動了這一波上漲呢？
推動咖啡價格上漲的因素
天氣問題
想像一下你在照顧花園，但你面對的不僅是偶爾的降雨，而是乾旱或意外的大雨。這就是巴西和越南的情況。巴西的Minas Gerais，這是一個主要的阿拉比卡產區，僅收到平時四分之一的降雨量。與此同時，越南的羅布斯塔作物也因乾旱遭受一些無法挽回的損害。這種天氣的變化是價格上漲的主要原因之一。
供應鏈問題
全球物流混亂—想想運輸延誤和港口壅塞。這些問題減慢了咖啡的交付速度，緊縮了供應鏈，推動了價格上漲。再加上蘇伊士運河的中斷和美元走強，意大利烘焙商的成本在過去兩年中增加了超過8億歐元（8.65億美元），Lavazza補充道。
貨幣動盪
雖然巴西雷亞爾依然疲軟，但兌美元匯率走強，為咖啡市場提供了一些緩解。
對於咖啡買家來說，美元走強會增加進口商的成本。根據美國於7月11日星期四發布的最新CPI數據，預計聯準會可能在今年9月開始降息，這可能會影響美元的強度。各大新聞頭條對美元的未來走勢看法不一。如果美元保持強勢，明年購買咖啡的成本預計會更高，這與咖啡價格的上漲趨勢一致。
市場投機
現在，讓我們談談對沖基金。這些金融巨頭正在大力押注咖啡價格會進一步上漲。由於預期未來供應短缺，他們正在做多頭寸，通過純粹的預期推動價格上漲。這是一個對咖啡未來充滿信心的看漲賭注。越南作為世界上最大的羅布斯塔生產國，由於今年的收成不佳，烘焙商支付的價格比期貨價格高出1000美元，Giuseppe Lavazza在採訪中表示。“我們在行業歷史上從未見過這樣的情況，”Lavazza說。“特別的是，這種影響持續時間之長。”
雖然對沖基金在推動牛市的同時，意味著其他人可能面臨損失。我們，和其他許多人一樣，只能以更高的價格購買。這是一個零和遊戲——不要恨玩家或恨這個遊戲，學會如何調整。阿拉比卡咖啡可能會因南美國家冬季的開始而面臨波動，交易員們正在關注任何霜凍的跡象。“市場非常緊張，”Lavazza說。“當它如此波動時，任何消息都可能引起震動。”
歐盟森林砍伐法規 (EUDR) 的影響
展望未來，還有另一個故事情節——歐盟的森林砍伐法規 (EUDR)。這項將於2024年12月生效的新規定要求進入歐盟的咖啡不得與2020年後的森林砍伐有關。
短期衝擊
公司正在比平時更早購買咖啡以避免合規問題。Lavazza指出，這種預先購買的狂潮已經推動了價格上漲。公司試圖通過提前確保供應來規避嚴格的要求，導致短期內需求增加和價格上漲。隨著歐盟森林砍伐法規在年底生效，“許多參與者正在比平時更早購買咖啡，”Lavazza說，為了避開證明其供應鏈不與2020年後的森林砍伐有關的要求。“毫無疑問，歐洲烘焙商購買的咖啡價格會高得多，”他補充道。“咖啡行業的公司正面臨非常強勁的逆風。”
長期影響
EUDR將更廣泛地引起變化。較小的生產者可能難以滿足這些新要求，可能會縮小可用咖啡的供應，進一步推動價格上漲。如果其他地區跟隨歐盟的腳步，我們可能會看到合規咖啡的全球供應緊縮。
結論
那麼，這些對咖啡市場意味著什麼？一系列的天氣挑戰、物流瓶頸、投機交易和新法規共同推動了咖啡價格的上漲，而對於供應鏈中的各位現在到底該怎麼做值得發人省思。另外，在我們航行這些波濤洶湧的水域時，保持信息靈通是關鍵。
在Zircle Coffee，我們致力於適應這些變化，確保你的咖啡始終保持高品質。密切關注趨勢，享受你的咖啡，我們會確保你的最愛始終如一地美味。
Why Your Coffee is Getting Pricier: What You Need to Know
If you’ve been keeping an eye on your caffeine fix costs lately, you might have noticed something brewing – and it’s not just your morning coffee. Prices are heating up, and there’s a whirlwind of factors behind this surge. Let’s dive into what’s stirring up the coffee market and what it means for your favorite blends.
Current Coffee Market Trends
First, let’s talk numbers. Recently, September Arabica coffee jumped up by 2.38%, while September Robusta surged nearly 4%. These price movements are reflective of broader market trends, with Arabica reaching a 1-1/2 week high and Robusta hitting a one-month peak. Futures for higher-end Arabica are up about 30% this year, as shortages of the cheaper Robusta variety bolster demand for the premium bean favored by Starbucks Corp. and Nestle SA’s Nespresso brands.
Production in major Robusta growers Vietnam and Indonesia dropped this year, leaving roasters jostling for beans, Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of coffee roaster Luigi Lavazza SpA, said in an interview this week. Robusta futures this week reached the highest in data since 2008, before easing. That means Arabica has to stay “quite high” too, he said. So, what’s fueling this upward climb?
Factors Driving Coffee Prices Up
Weather Woes
Imagine tending a garden, but instead of occasional rain, you’re facing droughts or unexpected downpours. That’s what’s happening in Brazil and Vietnam. Brazil’s Minas Gerais, a key Arabica region, got just a quarter of its usual rain. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Robusta crops are parched, with some damage being irreversible. This weather rollercoaster is a major culprit behind rising prices.
Supply Chain Snags
Global logistics have been a bit of a mess – think shipping delays and port congestion. These hiccups are slowing down coffee deliveries, tightening supply chains, and nudging prices upward. The higher prices, combined with rising shipping costs due to disruptions in the Suez Canal and a stronger dollar, have seen the Italian roaster’s costs jump more than €800 million ($865 million) in the last two years, Lavazza added.
Currency Chaos
The Brazilian real, though still weak, has also been strengthening against the US dollar. That is providing some relief to coffee markets, as “currencies were perhaps the primary obstacles to the bull market” last month, said Ryan Delany, Coffee Trading Academy LLC’s chief analyst.
As coffee buyers, a strong US dollar increases importers’ costs. Following the latest CPI data in the US released on Thursday, July 11th, there are expectations that the FED might start cutting interest rates this September, potentially impacting the strength of the US dollar. Headlines are divided, with differing expectations on the dollar’s future. If the dollar maintains its strength, we can expect a higher impact next year on buying coffee, which is also expected to be more expensive as the trend in coffee prices suggests.
Market Speculation
Now, let’s talk hedge funds. These financial heavyweights are betting big on coffee prices rising even more. With speculations of future shortfalls, they’re taking long positions and driving prices up through sheer expectation. It’s a bullish bet on a caffeinated future. Expectations of another production shortfall in Vietnam, the world’s top producer of Robusta, is fueling a surge in prices for the bean variety used in blends and espressos, Giuseppe Lavazza said in an interview.
This year’s poor harvest has seen roasters pay as much as $1,000 above futures prices for Vietnam’s beans, he added. “We’ve never seen something like that in the history of our industry,” Lavazza said. “And what is very special is the long-lasting effect of this.”
While hedge funds have a party wishing and pushing for a bull case scenario, their gains mean others face losses. We, like many others, have to buy at higher prices. It’s a zero-sum game – don’t hate the player, hate the game, and learn how to adjust. Arabica coffee could face volatility with the start of winter in the South American nation as traders look out for any signs of a frost. “The market is very nervous,” Lavazza said. “And when it’s so volatile, every single news can provoke a shock.”
Impact of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)
Looking ahead, there’s another twist in the tale – the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This upcoming rule, kicking in December 2024, mandates that coffee entering the EU must not be linked to deforestation post-2020.
Short-Term Surge
Companies are scrambling to buy coffee earlier than usual to avoid compliance issues. Lavazza notes that this pre-emptive buying spree is already pushing prices higher. Companies are seeking to bypass the stringent requirements by securing their supplies ahead of time, leading to increased demand and higher prices in the short term.
With the European Union Deforestation Regulation or EUDR kicking in by the end of the year, “a lot of players are buying coffee a little bit earlier,” Lavazza said, looking to bypass the requirement to prove their supply chains aren’t linked to land that was deforested after 2020. “No doubt that the coffee that European roasters are going to buy will cost much more,” he added. “Companies in the coffee industry are facing very strong headwinds.”
Long-Term Ripples
The EUDR is set to shake things up more broadly. Smaller producers might struggle to meet these new requirements, potentially shrinking the pool of available coffee and pushing prices up further. If other regions follow the EU’s lead, we could see a global squeeze on compliant coffee.
Conclusion
So, what does all this mean for the coffee market? A mix of challenging weather, logistical logjams, speculative trading, and new regulations are all brewing together to stir up coffee prices. Staying informed is key as we navigate these choppy waters.
At Zircle Coffee, we’re committed to adapting to these changes and ensuring that your coffee remains top-notch. Keep an eye on the trends, enjoy your brew, and rest assured that we’re on top of it all, making sure your favorite blends stay as delightful as ever.
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